Can someone explain me how come my portfolio was up 45% last year and up 31% so far this year? It makes absolutely no sense. It's equivalent to a compound growth of 90% in two years, which is totally crazy. And yet, about 11% of my portfolio is made of which reduced my performance (because they're less performing than the market).
That's fucking crazy and I'm constantly thinking that it won't last. But, at the same time, even when the market drops, good stocks drop too but not that much. It's usually stocks that have a hard time that fall even lower. Which means that stocks like Dollar General or Canadian National Railway which are close to their 52 weeks lowest point may be the best candidates to fall even lower given a substantial market drop. And Tesla would likely be less impacted.
It's not because such things happen that such things are rationnal. But it's how it works and that's what I try to consider when I manage my portfolio. Because the performance of a portfolio is a sum of many things: intelligent allocation, stocks picks, a bit of timing, a bit of luck and picks that coincide with what the other investors will consider interesting too.
I really like my position now regarding to investment. I'm pretty passive. I make very few transactions. I'm much more patient than before. My portfolio is doing well and I could retire tomorrow with enough money to live correctly (but not richly) for the rest of my life. Thus, I won't stop working in a close future because I want to live a bit more comfortably when I'm retired.
Today, I bought some cannabis pills at the SQDC (Société québécoise du cannabis). I'm slowly sinking in that absurd rich and famous lifestyle where you begin with cannabis and end up fucking animals in some sect in South America. Life is meaningless and sometimes I say to myself that I may find the meaning of life in the ass of a sheep.
I regret selling BN, DSG and ADI (nyse) back in July...But then again I managed to snag EW (nyse) on the day of its sell-off so that was okay...
RépondreSupprimerRecently picked up SJ and added to TIH as well GRT.UN
Going through family problems at the present time...So the market is really on the back-burner...
Perspective is everything when problems are in your life and otherwise...
Good luck with your problems. If your portfolio is solid enough, it won't be another source of problem and it may even support you in a rough period. Don't give up!
SupprimerI'm up 60k since Trump became president. One "QUANTUM COMPUTING" stock was up over 60% today. I tried shorting it and high tailed it out of there quickly with a strict stop loss. I mean, you see a stock is up 25% on the day and you figure it has to come back down to earth, right? LOL. I have made money buying quality businesses and much more money buying companies that offer the promise of becoming profitable some day.
RépondreSupprimerI do not want to steer people towards the trash cans of investing. If you want the most intelligent advice on stock market investing, all you have to do is scroll down to penetrator's previous articles on Discipline and his article on MY INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY. It's right here. This blogger from Quebec City or St Louis du Ha-ha is levels above most pro money managers in understanding what constitutes a great company to invest in. The best money managers in Canada are NOT in Penetrator's league. There's just no way. I have a little exercise to prove this. It is time for the 4 nations cup in hockey. Team Canada is the favorite according to the odds makers. But we are very weak on goal tending. When I tell my friends that Team USA might win 4 nations cup, most shoot back: OUR TOP SIX are BETTER than their TOP SIX. This is true...but that does not guarantee victory in a team sport like hockey.
For the purposes of a stock market investing challenge, your top six against my top six DOES matter. Mr Donville (remember him?) is up about 85% so far this year, but if you would ask him his top six stocks, he would include Constellation Software (like Penetrator would), but he would also include some small pharmaceutical company like Cipher, a space company like MDA Space and a company like Zedcor that depends on much of its business coming from the natural gas sector. Penetrator is way past making these riskier bets.
My best guess as to Monsieur Penetrator's top six stocks in the stock market? Constellation Software, Microsoft, Google, Mastercard, Meta and Parker Hannifin. His top six is gonna look something like that and if you see a top six like that, you know that you are seeing the picks of a very elite stock market investing mind. Face it, most of us are not fit to shine his crystal balls. This guy is a stock picker like Mike Bossy and Mario Lemieux were goal scorers.
Ask somebody their top six stocks, and you will see or get a rough idea of how much they understand. We can have speculative picks for thrills, but let somebody tell you their six best stocks that they would be happy holding for years.
My top six are: CSU.to AVGO AXON AMZN META and NVDA
if you have to ask why, look at what these companies have done
over the last TEN YEARS (not ten days). I do very stupid things like short momentum stocks or buy natural resources companies. Even when you know, it is hard to be consistently disciplined in saving and buying only the highest quality stocks. This is what makes the pride of Louis de Ha-ha, Quebec one of the very best stock market investors that you will ever come across.
C’est un honneur d’apprendre de l’homme qui a écrit MA PHILOSOPHIE D’INVESTISSEMENT / MY INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY directement sur ce site le lundi 29 avril 2024.
Merci Angelo mais je ne pense pas mériter ces éloges. Ma seule force est d'apprendre de mes erreurs et de ne pas les répéter. Pour ce qui est des stocks obscurs, je suis tout à fait d'accord: il n'y a rien de sérieux ou d'intelligent à investir dans de petites compagnies qui ne sont pas établies. Je n'investis plus que dans de grandes compagnies avec de bonnes marges de profit et un beau ROE (pour 80% de mon portefeuille, au minimum).
SupprimerThank you Angelo but I don't think I deserve this praise. My only strength is to learn from my mistakes and not to repeat them. In terms of obscure stocks, I couldn't agree more: There is nothing serious or smart about investing in small companies that are not established. I now only invest in large companies with good profit margins and a good ROE (for 80% of my portfolio, at least)
SupprimerHey, I've been reading your blog for a few years now, but never wrote. Funny enough, I heard about your blog in a book call Market Master where Jason Donville was interviewed.
RépondreSupprimerI don't know why I'm writing today. Maybe I had one too many glass of wine. I got to admit I like to read what you write and I wish you would write more often, but I understand that life is already full as it is.
Regarding your question about those insane results in the last two years, I must admit I'm stuck between "I still got several years to invest so I don't care about them dropping" and "the market are way to high to invest". I also had good result in the last four years (2020 was probably my best year ever). While I had good results, I'm thinking more and more that I'm not crazy enough to do stock picking because I've underperformed the market last year and this year. With a market like we have, I feel you have to throw all common sense by the window and just take the riskiest asset you can find. I expect market to slow down by a lot next year (no a big drop) like a lot of people call. We'll see.
P.S. I'm also from Quebec
Même si le marché est très cher ces temps-ci, il y a toujours quelques compagnies qui peuvent être intéressantes. Je n'investirais pas 100 000$ demain matin, mais quelques petites positions peuvent encore être prises. Par exemple, le CN, le CP, Couche-Tard et Stella Jones ne sont pas excessivement chers. Aucune de ces actions ne va être un coup de circuit incroyable mais je pense que sur le long terme, on peut s'attendre à du 10% annualisé, ce qui est quand même très bien (sans prendre de gros risque).
SupprimerJe suis d'accord que certaines compagnies connues (tel que celles énoncé) sont encore relativement abordables et peuvent offrir un rendement qui est correct. Je crois cependant qu'il y en a quelques une d'un peu moins connu qui sont moins à risque de subir l'impact d'une éventuelle correction au vue des prix auxquelles elles se transigent et de leur marges actuelles (et non potentielle). Il faut simplement chercher un peu plus et plonger dans les états financiers au lieu de simplement acheter ce qui a la côte ces temps-ci ou ce qu'on lit quelque part sans comprendre la business. J'avoue cependant avoir un parti pris considérant que j'ai étudié dans le domaine de la finance (sans toutefois travailler en investissement).
SupprimerDécouvrez qui est l’homme appelé le Warren Buffett canadien et investissez dans son entreprise. FFH est ridiculement sous-évalué bien qu’il ait beaucoup augmenté l’année dernière.
SupprimerForward p/e of 9.
Price to Book value of 1.39
price/sales of 1.15
ROE 17%
A history of stock appreciation of ~15% per annum going back many years. Stocks do not reach $2,000 per share by luck.
The insane things about Fairfax Financial? So many assets of theirs in India are on the books for a fraction of what they are worth and nobody is appreciating how much they can generate as the Indian economy grows 7% per year.
The streams of income Fairfax and its subsidiary in India will make from their interests in the Bangalore International Airport might be considerable as that economy continues to grow and air travel rises considerably in India.
With those returns, I think you could afford to fondle a herd of sheep? Maybe Trudeau, in his retirement, can join you and show you the ropes...
RépondreSupprimerVicario, Justin Castro is way too good looking to need to resort to sheep. No woman lusted after a man as much as his mom Margaret lusted after his biological dad Fidel Castro. You can see youTube videos of Margaret gushing how sexy and attractive Fidel is. What people were not able to figure out is how the Trudeaus were in Cuba at the right time to make Justin the son of Fidel Castro. What nobody tells us is that Pierre Trudeau's family home and the Cuban consulate in Montreal at the time were both at the foot of Mount Royal on a major Montreal street called Sherbrooke street and right across from each other. Fidel just had to slip into his Montreal consulate and make that huge two minute walk across the street to Margaret Trudeau's bedroom. At the funeral of Pierre Trudeau, Fidel was there with photo albums of the Trudeau kids and he looks over and he sees none other than his American counterpart from the 70s Jimmy Carter at the funeral of Pierre Trudeau. He had a look on his face: what the hell is HE DOING AT MY CUCK'S FUNERAL??? Fidel? It's like this, Jimmy Carter was not much of a leader or politician...but he was a very decent human being who wanted to pay his respects to Pierre Trudeau. The Trudeau family home...the front door...it was covered in a mountain of flowers when Pierre died. I remember passing by because I was cleaning the personal living space of a CEO who was from out of town and slept in Montreal weekdays and then went to his hometown THE CITY OF SHERBROOKE on weekends. Justin Castro? complete zero running an economy or country...like his commie bio dad...but Justin will never need help attracting women. The way Ivanka Trump looked at him when he met her told a story. This married woman was looking at Justin with deep longing and lust in her eyes. lol
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