jeudi 17 mars 2016

Portfolio review - March 17th 2016

It is now the time for a Penetrator's portfolio review.


CGI Group 10,2%
Couche-Tard 8,6%
Constellation Software 7,8% 
Concordia Healthcare 7,5%
Home Capital Group 5,5%
Knight Therapeutics 3,7%
Canadian Pacific 3,7%
Logistec 3,2% 
Valeant 3,0%
Callidus Capital 2,7%
Nobilis Health 2,4%


Gilead 8,6%
Allergan 6,9%
Ross Stores 6,2%
Dollar Tree 5,5%
Apple 5,4%
Polaris 4,4%
Lithia Motors 2,0%

Cash 2,5%

TOTAL: 100%

Penetrator's clever comments: The US dollar is now close to it's historical average. So, I believe that any good US stocks avalaible at a good price could be bought without too much hesitation.

What do I look on the market these days? Except for my now tiny Valeant position, I'm looking at:

  • Logistec (a huge load of stock buyback these last months)
  • Stella Jones (pretty good results released today)
  • Dollarama (great company, expensive but very interesting)
  • Knight Therapeutics (the healthcare sector is on sale, a company full of cash like Knight may be opportunist)
  • Allergan (the acquisition price by Pfizer should be higher than the actual price of the shares)
  • Lithia Motors (the last results were great and the stock is still cheap) 
  • Rifco (that company is still incredibly cheap even though it's making money. Too, the ROE is pretty high...but it's on the fucking venture exchange)
  • Canadian Pacific (the last results were pretty good and the company is looking for a big acquisition)

9 commentaires:

  1. Dear Master Pen,

    I like SJ, and I think they will continue to consolidate the treated wood sector for both utility poles and railroad ties for a while, even if the growth rate risk to be lower than the last decade. US rail operators are 25-40% lower than a year ago, because volume and profits are lower and they will consider to delay some ties replacement to keep their cashflows closer to last year, and because with less traffic, useful life of the asset can be extended a bit...

    Also I think GUD Knight Therapeutics might be in a good spot with cash and no debt leverage if large credit pharma co have to sell some assets to decrease their debt levels (like VRX ??)

    CP could be on sale if Bill Ackman need more money to double-down on Valeant... He may consider to privatise the co and purchase the remaining shares at $25 before another slump :-/...


  2. Would/are you buying more valeant?

  3. I'm not sure if your question was directed to Master Pen or me, so this is my answer:

    No I am not...

    Charlie Munger used to say that Valeant was not smelling good last year... With all the headlines, there will be a lot of distractions from Creditors, US Senators and SEC and shareholders. That Management energy will be waste on a lot of topics except operational efficiencies. And I won't be surprise to see some harassement from the Presidential candidates against a "Canadian Pharma" avoiding taxes.

    I added to CXR, and take small positions in NHC & CRH if you read previous DFWD blogs.

    Value Man

  4. I'm not buying Valeant anymore. At this price, I'm not selling either but things may change rapidly.

    1. Pen, you have 4/5 of Jason's 5 Great Stocks for 2016 which as a group have done 11.3% since his Jan. 28 reco, not too shabby. The only one you're missing is CRH which appears to be bucking the very weak trend that the H.C. Sector is exhibiting right now. I'm crossing my fingers for a good report from CXR on the 23rd which is a big holding for me also.

    2. What caused the change of heart if I might ask?

  5. Well, CXR results were not well received and the adj EPS $0.07 miss was translated by a 13% drop today.

    Results were amazing: Revenues were up 276%, ebitda 349%, adj EPS were up only 82%! According to their latest F16 guidance published on their website, Adj EPS should be between $6.29-$6.69 US.

    With a $6.50 avg @ 1.35 exch =$8.77CA. With a multiple of 10, we can expect a target price of $88 at the end of the year, a potntial upside of +150%... Just need to apply a risk factor to adjust the expectation... but the upside should be good for F16!


  6. I have a post about CXR and related companies which is gonna be released soon.

  7. Hey would anyone buy CXR at $34 after the earnings?