mardi 15 mars 2016

Some thoughts about Bill Ackman related to Valeant's drop and a word on Nobilis Health

  •  When you think you're having a bad day, just remember that it could be worse: you could be Bill Ackman.
  • In fact, if Bill Ackman was japanese, he'd probably commit hara-kiri (don't do this Bill, I've heard it hurts a lot. I have some suggestions below to forget about painful moments like today).
  • What's that smell? It's the huge nervous shit in Bill Ackman's pants that's so abundant, it's smelling from New-York to Canada.
  • Bill Ackman could have bought almost any crappy stock one year ago, he would have had better results than with his investment on Valeant. In fact, a monkey or even a chicken would have had better returns.


Today, I almost laughed, seeing the incredible drop of Valeant. It was so tragic to lose so much money in a single day that I couldn't manage my emotions. So I was inclined to laugh, or at least to smile, saying: "C'est pas possible, tabarnac!". Oh yeah, the shit under Philidor was surely much bigger than what I thought.

Some people say that the sales of Valeant's drugs are way lower than what was expected, proving that Valeant's model is starting to crumble.

Maybe both opinions are right (Philidor + sales declining). I don't know. I still believe that the actual valuation is insanely cheap (less than 4 times earnings), but maybe I'm a victim of the management and their beautiful words that seem to worry everyone but me. Because I'm so fucking stupid.

Well, fuck all that and let's party with some cocaine and russian whores! There is no future anyway.


I have a word to say on Nobilis Health (NHC.TO). Holy shit, the last results were released this afternoon and they are so fucking great!

0,68$ (US) per share in 2015 VS 0,06$ (US) per share for 2014. They actually beat expectations by 0,39$, which is incredible.

And the shares are selling at 4,40$ (CAN)!

They fucking killed estimates. I fucking hated that company until today because of their public relations and accounting problems but now I'm madly in love with them and I hope a fucking load of people all around the world will buy their shares tomorrow to help me getting back the 20 000$ I lost with Valeant!


3 commentaires:

  1. I also added to my NHC position last week and today and hope the shares do well... I just wish valeant didn't bring the sector down with it. What were the estimates for NHC?

  2. It's written on my post dear Carla. Just remove 0,39$ from 0,68$.

  3. Hey Master Pen,

    VRX used to be my biggest position (14%) for more than half of 2014 (2nd) and 2015 (1st); unfortunately, I hold on when the fall started until I lost two-third of the value before pulling the trigger late last fall.

    I was always thinking about Warren Quote "Be greedy when others...", and I thought to add to my position when the slide started... but I should had listen Veronika Hirsch, who said she is not waiting long time to turn a page when results are not there and Management have operational distractions (Senate & SEC investigations) or allegations(it was not specific to Valeant Case...)- There are always plenty of opportunities instead to dig always the in the same hole... Pearson will have to fight internally with Ackman & his board members if they don't share the same approach to re-increase the value of the VRX assets. Pearson want to keep B&L to generate recurring cash and Bill seems wanting to sell those assets to decrease Debt Level ASAP.

    Looking to last month performance on my Globe and Mail Watchlist, NHC is +57% while VRX is -65%... When I 've sold my VRX shares,I invested modest positions in NHC, CRH and another non-health related stock, but because of the slide before last month, I'm doing only 20% with NHC.

    If NHC Results were good, don't forget the $25M tax Benefit is a one-time event... Diluted EPS should be close to $0.34 US excluding that. Management is targeting a 20% Adj EBITDA growth for F16, so stock is trading around 8.5 F16 EPS assuming the EPS growth to be close to the 20% Adj EBITDA growth and Fx rate close to current level...

    If Management is able to achieve their guidance, I think we can reasonably expect an expansion of the EPS multiple to 11 and a $6 CAD target.