vendredi 14 octobre 2016

Portfolio review - october 14th, 2016

There's been some changes in the Penetrator Portfolio recently. I got rid of some stocks like Polaris and Apple, reduced some others like Knight Therapeutics, CGI and United Therapeutics and I adopted a partial Giverny Capital strategy by acquiring my three favorite stocks owned by Giverny: Disney, Bank of the Ozarks and Mohawk Industries.

2016 has been a so-so year. My performance is slighly negative (about -5% since the beginning of the year), but I don't find that too bad considering the fact that a big proportion of the portfolio was invested in Valeant and Concordia Healthcare not so long ago.

In other words, it could have been much worse. I'm back from the war with my two legs and my two arms. I'm just limping.

The market did way better than me. I've paid a lot of money to learn the lesson of trusting my check-list instead of trusting so-called professionals.

Let's take a look at my 19 stocks portfolio.

Canadian stocks:

Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO): 9,5%
Constellation Software (CSU.TO): 8,2%
CGI Group (GIB-A.TO): 7,5%
Tucows (TC.TO): 5,2%
Linamar (LNR.TO): 5,1%
Hardwood Distribution (HWD.TO): 4,9%
Knight Therapeutics (GUD.TO): 3,6%
Stella Jones (SJ.TO): 2,7%
Ceapro (CPZ.V): 1,5%

US stocks:

Gilead (GILD): 6,5%
Ross Stores (ROST): 6,5%
United Therapeutics (UTHR): 6,2%
Dollar Tree (DLTR): 5,7%
Biogen (BIIB): 4,6%
Novo Nordisk (NVO): 4,6%
Lithia Motors (LAD): 4,6%
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): 4,3%
Mohawk (MHK): 3,1%
Disney (DIS): 2,9%

Cash: 2,6%

Average PE ratio of the portfolio: 16,3
Average ROE of the portfolio: 38
Average Beta of the the portfolio: 0,83

25 commentaires:

  1. You need to start every blog entry with: FUCK DONVILLE! THROW HIM OVER A TRASH CAN, AND FUCK HIM!

    If not for Valeant and especially Concordia ($5 stock, new 52 week low as I type) would have done very well while other investors are getting killed.

    I am invested in guns, gold, and drugs (which shows you the kind of times I think we are living in). I expect Donville to go from closing his funds off to new investors to... closing down entirely and going out of business as a money manager.

    If the U.S. dollar remains high, then earnings of big companies like Mohawk and Disney will be affected by currency exchange. Multinationals will keep coming in with lower earnings as international sales decrease. We may be one USA interest rate hike away from the market taking a tumble.

    There's just one giant in the world of investing...and you wrote about him in your previous blog entry. Nobody thinks Buffett's company is over-valued. Nobody doubts that kraft or heinz will still be in business 50 years from now (or any of the other companies Buffett owns).

    1. Yeah, with Buffet, you'll easily get a 8-9% yield every year. Boring and not very agressive but very safe.

  2. I thought you owned MTY Group? You sold?

    1. Yeah. I thought the stock was expensive. I'd prefer to wait and see.

  3. What are your current thoughts on Jason Danville and his investing style now? Remember he loved CXR a few months ago and i fukin got burned to a crisp on that, more crisp than the bacon i eat in the morning! I just turned vegetarian!

    1. I think he got to a point where his best moves no longer compensate for his bad moves.

      Most analysts have average picks. Donville had some terrible picks and some terrific picks. Is it the same? Probably.

  4. Do you have a better pick than Ross Stores (ROST) in the last 12 months? It is up over 28% in the last 12 months. I have not looked at the numbers for all the stocks you list in your portfolio. Ross Stores just stood out for me and I consulted yahoo finance (up 28.32% in last 52 weeks) while S&P 500 is up ~ 5% in last 52 weeks.

    1. Tucows did better and Knight Therapeutics did about the same as Ross.

    2. I have had my eye on constellation software. Amazing company but seems like an expensive stock. Can you really buy companies like Constellation Software and Dollarama now that they go for around 30x next year's earnings?

    3. I just had to buy a dishwasher. I looked at Whirlpool and Samsung and GE but ultimately it came down to Bosch or Miele. I had to pay more for it because of the name and components that came along with it, but I sleep better at night knowing that it's not going to rust out and leak water everywhere and I have to replace all of my tile and hardwood. If I have to pay a bit more to avoid corrupt/inept management, a management that has proven to be superior in how they allocate their capital or a company that provides a product proprietary to others, I'll do it.

    4. I'd say that I can live with 2-3 high PE stocks in my portfolio. Actually, I think that every portfolio should have a couple of very high quality/ high PE stocks.

  5. Gilead is my largest US holding too. Are you at all concerned that Harvoni (their key Hep C drug) sales will continue to decline resulting in a weak q3 top line and continued depreciation in the stock? I'm hoping that the lack of acquisition activity to date in response to that is a function of management's confidence that the harvoni sales decline has leveled off but am nevertheless somewhat concerned...

  6. Of course, I'm concerned about Gilead. But the stock is very very cheap. They're full of cash and the ROE is amazing.

    A similar case to Apple and IBM.

    1. In fact, not entirely similar: Apple and Gilead have a small debt. IBM's debt is much higher.

  7. You could change it to 'dontfuckwithdelvicario'... apparently I'm being called the new Jason Donville.
    I have been following your blog for sometime and love it! I use a very similar process/technique as Donville but differ in a few key areas. As an example I have strict stop loss prices I adhere to. We got out of VRX at $320 and CXR at $86. Feel free to visit my site to see how our models are performing: You can also Google my BNN spots; here is the latest: I will be appearing every 6 weeks or so. I will be highlighting stocks I own in my model portfolios and my goal is also to introduce a company most people will have never heard of. I was first to bring CZO to the BNN airwaves... and my latest (DCM) is kicking ass. Merci et j'aime bien votre blog!... oh and I also speak and understand french. Salut!

    1. I can see that you're gifted in the field of self-marketing.

      From now on, I'll follow you. I'll worship you in a couple of years if your performance is consistent.

    2. If what you say above re "strict stop loss prices you adhere to" is true would you not have sold Constellation Software when it declined to $450/share in late January as opposed to "holding it since inception" as you said on Market Call?

  8. You hold a DKAM Fund in your fund. Is this going to be your next top pick?

  9. I did hold the DKAM fund as of the end of September which are the dates of the reports you are looking at (I assume you've gone to my site). We sold it October 1st for reasons I'm not going to get into here so you won't see it on the Oct 31st reports.

    We actually did sell some of our CSU at a painful price of $438 in January. For every stock we own we have two stop loss prices... if the first is hit we sell 50% and the second we are out completely. I don't profess to be perfect and it was painful to have to stick to our guns and sell some. We bought back at $505 and more recently at $589. Given we didn't sell all, it is accurate that we've held it since inception. Same thing happened with Facebook August 2015. No system is perfect and mine isn't either but we've done a pretty good job.

    Self marketing; I'm in the business of managing money. If I have no money to manage I'm out of business and must forage for berries in the bush. So yes, I self market... I even hire people to do this as well. Should I apologize?... ok, sorry?

    Anyhow, I like your blog a lot; it makes me laugh my ass off and while I can't be as crude as you in public, I respect your no BS attitude.

    Bonne chance and thanks for not ripping me to shreds... yet!

  10. Fair enough - thanks for explaining your process in greater detail. I respect that.

  11. You don't have to apologize Jason. You look OK. It's just that your first comment sounded like a hommage to yourself by yourself. But it's fine. It's your job to get clients by showing them how good you are.

    Anyway, I'm always interested to chat with people. Your picks on stockchase look good. Maybe we could be friends.

  12. Vicario comment shows pro and cons of using stop loses. I personally don't like using them. It means that I have actually bought some of his CSU shares early this year at $440 (instead of selling) that one day when oil was going to zero and RBS said to sell everything! But it also means that I waited way too long to come to realization that VRX and CXR were garbage and lost a lot of money on them instead of getting out by a stop at much higher price. Overall I prefer to use my brain to sell rather than an artificial stop but in some cases I will be royally wrong and get hosed. It will reduce my trading frequency though.

  13. No question Jon. At the end of the day even the best "system" still has human input in either the development or implementation. Ability to admit mistakes is huge in the investing game. My process doesn't allow for human bias or emotion and thankfully we get it right more often than wrong. Anyhow the CSU numbers from last night were kick ass and we are happy to be overweight; same with CRH numbers from this morning. Oh and I'm having coffee with Jason Donville November 10th. He's one of my investing heroes so I'm really looking forward to chatting with him.
    Happy rest of the week.

  14. Love the blog!
    I was close to pulling the trigger on CZO for a little while now, ever since Penetrator initiated a position in it (around $2.00). I think today may be the day to get in....any thoughts?

    Glad I didn't jump on the DCM ship on October 20th!

    Have a great day

  15. I still think that CZO is a great pick, but for a little position only because that's fucking venture.