samedi 15 juillet 2017

Portfolio review - july 15th

There's been some movement in my portfolio lately.

I initiated a position in O'Reilly (ORLY) and Middleby (MIDD). I went back to Hardwoods distribution (HWD.TO) which I should never have sold. And I bought some more of MTY, CGI, Disney, Ross Stores and Dollar Tree.

My portfolio is up about 2,5% so far this year. I'm disappointed with my performance, but frankly, I like every stock I own. They're all well managed and I don't see a lot of risk in any of them. Plus, many of them have great growth prospects.

Penetrator's portfolio


Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO): 8,4%
CGI Group (GIB-A.TO): 7,2%
Constellation Software (CSU.TO): 6,7%
Tucows (TC.TO): 5,7%
Linamar (LNR.TO): 5,7%
MTY Food Group (MTY.TO): 5,6%
Knight Therapeutics (GUD.TO): 3,4%
Stella Jones (SJ.TO): 3%
Hardwoods Distribution (HWD.TO): 2,5%


Ross Stores (ROST): 5,3%
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): 4,9%
Novo Nordisk (NVO): 4,6%
LKQ (LKQ): 4,3%
Biogen (BIIB): 4,2%
United Therapeutics (UTHR): 3,9%
Disney (DIS): 3,6%
Dollar Tree (DLTR): 3,5%
Mohawk (MHK): 3,2%
O'Reilly (ORLY): 3,2%
Lithia Motors (LAD): 3,2%
Middleby (MIDD): 1,9%
Bioverativ (BIIV): 0,4%

Cash: 5,7%

Portfolio's average ROE: 29
Portfolio's average forward PE: 15,5
Portfolio's average Beta: 0,85

To conclude, I invite everybody to join this group about growth investing created by my friend Robin Speziale. It's on Facebook.

If you're single, there's some cute girls there.

If you're not, they're still there.

7 commentaires:

  1. The statistic the interests me most these days is not forward p/e or even ROE, but how much each of these companies are growing their earnings per share from this year to the next. For example, Tucows is expected to go from making around $2 per share in the current year to making about $3.60 per share next year. I think a lot of people may soon be taking notice of this incredible rate of growth in EPS.
    Middleby is an outstanding company and Selim Bassoul (the CEO) is a master capital compounder. I hope you do well with that stock. But they are on course to grow earnings about 12% next year. There's nothing wrong with that. But it's hard to get more than a 12% stock appreciation if that's what they are growing earnings at. Your portfolio seems to be stagnating because there's not many companies in it that are showing explosive growth in earnings year to year lately. You can get rich making that steady 12% over the long term. But folks expecting great companies like Middleby or Constellation to appreciate like they did 5 or 10 years ago will be disappointed.
    To his credit, your friend Robin included National Beverage (FIZZ) among the list of great growth stocks at the back of his last e-book (capital compounders). I saw mostly canadian names on the list. The one American stock he picked out has already doubled so far this year. I'm sure he can explain great growth stocks better than I can. Join his group or spend that $1.30 for his latest e-book, Capital Compounders.

    1. Too much hype, a little too much hype…with all due respect Angelo, I couldn’t disagree more. Earnings per share are based on the income statement which is chock full of accountants’ estimates and assumptions. And with the pressure from investment bankers for the growth company to meet its quarterly earnings, there can be a temptation for manipulation as well. The managers of these companies are only human like everyone else and for a growth company to meet the expectations of the street they constantly must deal with the pressure of maintaining their earnings growth and the high expectations that go along with it. These high expectations are often already built into the price of the stock.

      To call your self a growth investor is to insinuate that value doesn’t matter. And over time value does matter for all kinds of reasons not least of which is to build a margin of safety into your individual investments. This can help protect the investor from the psychological blows the market will administer to him when his investment expectations fall short of their targets.

      I believe in growth investing. It’s hard to create value unless there is growth. But I don’t want wild out of control growth. It reminds me of a race car speeding down the road but fails to slow down to take the next curve and flies off the road to crash and burn. I want a good management team that has a firm hand on the wheel and doesn’t mind not meeting their next quarterly numbers because they are taking a long term view of their companies’ prospects. And when those numbers are not met, the price of the stock drops creating a more of a value opportunity even though it is still a growth stock.

  2. Except Tucows and Knight, we both shareholders of all other Canadian holdings that you have.

    Recently added MTY foodgroup and probably won't sell as long as Stanley Ma is busy out there making acquisitions.

    Love that CoucheTard is making more moves lately. Hope the integration goes well.

    My Linamar is currently up by more than 50%. Again, as long as Linda is running the company and keep buying shares, I am in!

    Middleby has been on my watchlist for a while. Selim is a solid business operator with frugality in mind when making acquisitions. I will research more and probably initiate my position sooner or later.

  3. Have you guys checked out that website?

    I just checked it out a few minutes ago for the very first time. Very impressive. Very inspirational.

  4. I don't have a Facebook page. In fact I'm in an anti Facebook bet and I'm not about to tap out for this (no offence Robin). 8 years ago six of us swore we'd never get a Facebook page and decided to make it interesting. If any of the people in the bet got a page, they automatically owed everyone left in the bet $100. There are three left. I ain't cracking. It's one of my larger positions for clients mind you...

  5. I only get on facebook using my dog's name and photo. I have not decided if bella should join Robin's facebook group...but I do keep buying his books.