lundi 18 septembre 2017

Portfolio review, september 18th, 2017

I sometimes ask myself about other guys who are 35-40 years old. How do they occupy their time?

I don't think I refuse to grow up, but a big part of me is very conscious of the fact that time flies. I want to live a mature, yet a reasonably wild life. Thus, I sometimes go out with friends and I try to live special moments by dressing like Bruce Springsteen or some other shit.

It's probably the thing I like the most in life. I wonder what a normal 35-40 years old guy prefers the most?  Playing hockey with his kids? Doing Sudokus?

I have a young friend which has a lot of potential. He's 15 years younger than me but he's funny, intelligent, curious and wild. He also admires my way of seeing the world and tries to do the same as me, sometimes.

But he's a little too much looking for experiences. For instance, recently, he told me that he snorted coke on a toilet in a gay pub.

I was disgusted. How could someone snort cocaine in a place that received so much dicks and smegma and AIDS? I have nothing against gay people but I don't want to have anything to do with their dicks. Can you imagine the content of the dick of Freddy Mercury mixed with something going in your nose?


Ok, now, let's take a look at my portfolio. My performance so far in 2017 have been a little disapointing given the fact that my biggest positions have stalled and given the fact that the US dollar has lost about 7 cents (my US stocks represent about 50% of my portfolio).

Alimentation Couche-Tard: 8,1%
Constellation Software: 6,9%
CGI Group: 6,7%
Linamar: 6,1%
MTY Food Group: 5,5% 
Tucows: 4,8%
Hardwoods Distribution: 3,8%
Stella Jones: 3,3%
Knigh Therapeutics: 3,2%

Ross Stores: 6,4%
Bank of the Ozarks: 5,4%
Novo Nordisk: 5%
Dollar Tree: 4,8%
Biogen: 4,6%
LKQ: 4,5%
O'Reilly: 3,5%
Credit Acceptance Corp: 3,3%
Disney: 3,2%
Mohawk: 3,1%
Middleby: 2,5%
Bioverativ: 0,9%

Cash: 4,4%

Average ROE: 29
Average forward PE: 16
Average Beta: 0,8

12 commentaires:

  1. Angelo Dallas - What are your thoughts on the SUPN announcement? From what I understand they went into the study with some taking 16mg, some taking 32mg, and some taking a placebo to statistically determine the most effective dose. 32mg is showing the greatest benefits so now they can drop the 16mg. In the conference call they said that this was planned and the study is basically on course. Sounds to me it's business as usual and if the stock pulls back its a buying opportunity. Your thoughts?

  2. It's never a good thing when they make changes to a study. I've become more pessimistic about the pipeline. That said, this is an already profitable company with $195 million in cash and securities, no debt and they are hiring 40 new sales reps this quarter. I see the company's already established epilepsy drugs getting approval to be used for bi-polar disorder down the road (they are already approved to prevent migraines). It was a bunch of day traders who shorted and kept shorting to flush out the weak hands that caused a 20%+ drop. SP-810 may still be approved. But that's not why I hold the stock...and we should be more pessimistic about SP-810. However, A stock with 10% of its market cap in cash and securities, no debt, a p/e around 20 and a return on equity around 60% IS A BUY in my book. If either of the two main drugs in their pipeline get approved, then this stock is a ten bagger. Here's a seeking alpha article from last month breaking down possible revenue streams from the pipeline drugs:

  3. Thanks for sharing Penetrator. I am getting closer to mid 30 so I am in that age and I have been thinking about the same thing. Next turning point of my life.
    When I was a teen, I was curious of life after becoming an adult
    then life after finishing 2 years mandatory military service
    then life in Canada
    then life after getting married
    then life after having kids (I am not there yet...)
    What would be next? maybe life after early retirement?

    Anyway... our portfolio (Canadian part) is getting really aligned. I just do not have Tucows and Knight but do have Lassonde and Enghouse. I have allocated less than 20% to US portfolio (Google, Gilead and dollar tree) so I was less impacted by strengthen of CDN. I have been thinking of adding more on Couchetard for its cheap valuation.

    I took a look at SUPN (thanks to angelo and twotime) which I think is quite interesting. Sound balance sheet, free cash flow, growing revenue and net income, good products... on top of that recent drop that came from an event that may not impact $ seems like a buying opportunity

  4. What stocks are on your watchlist guys?

  5. Be Smart Rich...

    One interesting idea is a supply chain management stock...Tecsys Inc....stock symbol TCS on the tsx.

    Tecsys Inc. is a provider of innovative supply chain management software solutions to streamline operations, reduce costs and improve customer service for distribution businesses. Its solutions touch warehouse management, distribution, transport management and purchasing & planning.

    I think they have a very attractive supply side and big potential to capture a good piece of a growing market. Free cash flow positive with no debt. Pay a dividend as well. A small stock which I like thats seems to be under the radar right now.

    1. Thanks! I am digging into TCS and adding it into my watch list. Quite interesting so far. Growing EPS and free cash flow per share, good ROE and ROIC, very little debt, small cap, very little or no share issuance. Brereton (Dave and Peter) own 4.1M shares which is 34% of total shares. Perfect proportion for my liking and their salary is about 10% of last year's net income so I guess that's not too bad. What's interesting is I thought there aren't many Canadian companies to add to my watch list anymore but here it comes... Thanks for your input Gavin.

    2. That was quite a response. I learned some things about TCS that I wasn't aware of before. I guess sharing is a good thing...

  6. My apologies...there is some debt...I guess I had a senior moment...

  7. I knew about Tecsys twenty years ago. I'm not even sure they were publicly listed at the time. They've been around a long time. They are run by hard working, decent people that inspire trust. In the last five years the stock price has done really well. If I had to pick a supply chain stock, I'd hold my breath and take a stab at the over-valued Kinaxis (KXS). I suspect they will be the world beater in the supply chain solutions space. Their earnings may even catch up to their ridiculously high evaluation. LOL

    Technology is a risky sector and I'm hesitant to pull the trigger when change happens so fast. There is one stock that has been on a terror and has positioned itself to eat the mighty Cisco Network's lunch. Their Compounded annual growth rate of 52% over the last five years is truly impressive. They are Arista Networks (ANET). If you want to know more about them, I refer you to two seeking alpha articles:

    I'm not buying anything at this time and at these prices...but I do like to speculate as to what the next great super-stock might be.

    1. ANET is also interesting. Hyper growth company with tailwinds on their side. Quite pricey but it deserves the price I think... There are so many great companies in American markets but unfortunately, I do not have enough USD to buy as many as I like to...

  8. Watchlist:

    -Vertu motors
    -It Link
    -Microwave Vision
    -Innate Pharma (Phase III on going)
    -Fancamp Exploration (10% of Champion Iron , something strange about the market cap of Fancamp compare to Market Cap of CI)

    50% of my portfolio