mercredi 29 novembre 2017

Excitation at the end of the year

Technical analysis is something very strange. It's an esoteric way of investing. It's like seeing signs where there's no signs. With some weed, I think I could be a very good technical investor. Well, I shouldn't say "good", I should say "creative". I could see and say things that nobody said before on TV or on the Internet.

But, even if I don't really trust that approach, I have to say that there's a strange pattern in the market that puzzles me: how come do the market always go up in the last months of the year?

OK, please, don't cite 1987 with the crash of september. There's always exceptions to a rule. But if you look at the last 5 years, you can see that the S&P 500 has always gone up during the 4 last months of the year (from end of august to end of december). Obviously, 2017 isn't over yet, so I took from end of august til end of november. 


S&P August 29th:  2432
S&P November 29th:  2626


S&P August 30th: 2171
S&P December 30th: 2238


S&P August 30th: 1970
S&P December 30th: 2044


S&P August 29th: 1998
S&P December 31th: 2059


S&P August 30th: 1638
S&P December 31th: 1848

It's not always spectacular, but it's always up. This year, I know that many people hope that the Trump reform on taxation will be accepted. I hope too because I could take advantage of it. And it could be the only thing that Trump would do right after acting worse than any fucking hobo you could have taken on the street and put on his chair.

5 commentaires:

  1. Not so fast with the end of the year excitation, chien chaud. Here's the problem:
    On Thursday, the Joint Committee on Taxation said the Senate bill would generate more than $400 billion in revenue over 10 years through economic growth, but that’s not nearly enough to compensate for the measure’s $1.4 trillion cost.
    Now normally the u.s. politicians do not care about the best interests of regular Americans. They drive policies to make the rich even richer while creating more debt for regular people. But it won't take too many republican senators with a conscience to create problems for those of us looking to grow our stock market gains. The stock market will probably go down if there is no tax cut.

  2. Well if this happens, there will good opportunity to buy quality stock at a good price.

  3. The Senate passed the tax bill:


    The bill passed the chamber 51 to 49, with the only Republican “no” vote coming from Tennessee’s Bob Corker, who cited concerns about the deficit.

    The House bill would cut the corporate rate to 20% next year. The Senate’s bill would delay that cut until 2019.//

    Either way, less taxes to pay = more profits. You know what that means? Excitation in 3...2...1... lol.

  4. I hate being a spoilsport (or maybe in a twisted way I do like it), anyway before everyone celebrates this could already be in the market. In other words at this stage of the game, there might very well be more downside than upside. Such is the nature of the markets when everyone celebrates an "obvious" thing...just saying...