jeudi 30 août 2018


I'm completely mystified by Amazon. The stock just reached the 2000$ mark, which means that it has doubled over the last year (about 980$ a year ago). And we're talking about a stock with a market cap of about 1 trillion dollars.

Oh yes, my droogies. Amazon is the second biggest market cap in the world, just after Apple (which had a 40% return over the last year... not bad either). That's completely crazy.

What is funny about Amazon is that it's PE multiple has contracted instead of expansed over that period, which is the exact opposite of what should have happened.

OK, Amazon is a case apart because of it's stratospheric valuation. It's just less stratospheric this year than it was last year. It means that the company has made a great job of improving it's earnings.

And there are still people investing on the Venture, with penny stocks, thinking that's where you can the most easily double your money.

I'm not that a fan of Amazon, but I'd put money on it anytime before I'd put money on any penny stock.


Remember the famous last words of Bernard Mooney: "I have one regret: it's having overlooked exceptional companies because of their price". That sentence can be applied to Amazon, but probably to many other examples that we all have in mind. 

8 commentaires:

  1. There may be a little more to the story of Amazon (and for that matter, all of the big cap growth stocks in the states) than meets the eye. This is the phenomenal rise of ETF investing. Howard Marks as well as our own David Barr of Penderfund Capital Management and Stephen Takacsy of Lestor Asset Management have talked about this.

    These big cap growth stocks in the states are drawing in investment capital not just based on their fundamentals but on the fact they can soak up all of the excess liquidity of the now huge ETF market. In other words their very size is attracting investment dollars irregardless of their fundamentals. Maybe that’s why things aren’t making much sense right now. I think they’re all over-owned and becoming too popular…but a difference of opinion is what makes a market I guess…

  2. I'm glad that you have mentioned Bernard Mooney because he has written my favorite investing book ever: Investir à la bourse et s'enrichir which I have read 4 times already!

    1. Excellent livre en effet. Meilleur livre en français sur la bourse selon moi.

    2. Any english copy by Bernard Mooney? I read his article about Richelieu Hardware with help of Google translate many years ago and that was an amazing one.

    3. I don’t know! But most of his ideas have been recycled by me.

  3. On a beau se dire et se redire qu’il faut parfois payer plus cher pour une compagnie qu’on trouve excellente. Mais toujours est-il qu’on continue encore et encore de regarder monter des titres qu’on avait bien ciblé mais qu’on aura jamais acheté. Pour ma part, je pense à Five Below, Google, et CSU. Faaawwk.

  4. Merci d’avoir porter à notre attention Ulta beauty. À surveiller de très près. Des chiffres exceptionnels. Fortune brands, un titre chouchou de Rochon est également à surveiller. Le titre a corrigé pas mal, je ne vois pas pourquoi d’ailleurs, car mais les revenus progressent toujours.

  5. Ordered some stuff from Amazon last Saturday morning and received the package yesterday Monday afternoon. Super fast delivery. I also noticed the outside of the box is printed with their new show "Jack Ryan" Not sure whether that is cost effective form of advertising but they keep trying new things!