mardi 4 septembre 2018

Naspers (NPSNY)

If you're about my age, when you read "Naspers", you think "Napster".

You remember Napster? That great software you could use to download every song in the world in the beginning of this century? Oh my god, I've downloaded so much songs on the ultra fast Internet access of the University while I was supposed to listen to some teacher.

Well, Naspers is not that at all.

Naspers is a kind of south-african conglomerate which first caught my attention when Sequoia Fund started a position, a few months ago. I took a look at it and I wasn't that seduced at first sight.

They're in Internet medias, TV medias, Internet access, print medias and some other stuff. But, their most exceptional asset is a stake of about 150 billion dollars in Tencent, which is the China equivalent of Google/Facebook/Everything.

Having been in China recently, I can tell you that this country seems very self-centered (thanks to communism). So, I believe that chinese are conditioned to obey, respect and believe in what they're taught to obey, respect and believe. And Tencent is probably one of these things.

I'm not convinced that it's a trustable company because everything outside our great occidental civilization raises scepticism for me. You can never really trust accounting practices in our country, what could it be in Africa or in Asia?

But, today, after the big drop in Naspers, I was very tempted to start a small position in that stock. Why a big drop? Because of some late results but mostly (it seems), because of the big big drop of the Rand (which is the money used in South Africa). For instance, it looks like the rand has lost about 20% VS the canadian dollar over the last 6 months. That fucking country looks like it's going into a fucking abyss. 

But, anyway, what a growth! Most numbers look great.

Current ROE: 59
Average ROE last 5 years: 33
Annual EPS growth last 5 years: 71%
Annual sales growth last 5 years: 3% (???)

Given the estimates, it looks like the stock is selling for something like 15 times next year's earnings, which is crazy. So, it's a matter of trust.

What do you think about that stock? Let's create a negative or positive hype all together. 

3 commentaires:

  1. Have you ever seen a ONE HUNDRED TRILLION DOLLARS bank note from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe? Feel free to do a google images search.
    I do not buy Chinese stocks because of their trusty, creative accounting standards and their interesting business structures. I cannot imagine how much worse an idea it is to buy a Chinese company through a South African firm. I suspect that South Africa may be on its way to becoming the next Zimbabwe. It's what happens when a nation stops respecting property rights. The government is now seizing white owned farms WITH NO COMPENSATION. It won't be long before the South Africans are starving to death. I'll stick with the American version of Tencent. It's mired in controversy and seems way too risky for some of you. It's called Facebook. Here's some news about Facebook. They may be close to turning Instagram into a far greater money machine than anybody imagined:

    Report: Instagram building stand-alone shopping app

    1. I agree with you Angelo. I would never buy a Chinese stock.

  2. I used to own Naspers, thought it was a real bargain.

    Yet, according to most Chinese accounting is a fraud, designed to put the capital of Chinese Elite overseas. Apparently, Chinese culture has no problem with lying (although I am no expert on Chinese culture in any form or capacity !). They might prefer lying over loosing, anytime? See:

    Also according to and 2017 Financial Stability Board's (FSB) "Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report"... special Chinese corporate structures are now owning 30% of all financial assets in the world... If this shakes out, it might be epic !

    I sold. Maybe buy Naspers again at some point in time for the other assets, ex-Tencent?