mardi 27 août 2019


Who's buying stocks these days?

Who's waiting for a correction?

In my opinion, the market is not too expensive, however, I don't see anything short term that could result in a substantial raise of the market. So, I believe that a portfolio that's 8-12% cash is not a bad idea at all.

What about you?

10 commentaires:

  1. I'am always below 5%... But I'am ready to sell part of ATD.b, BYD.un and CSU, redeploy that in beaten stocks... just follow tweeter to have opportunities

  2. Currently the cash position in my portfolio is between 1 and 2 percent but it’s always between 1 and 2 percent as I prefer to be fully invested at all times…Maybe that’s a mistake on my part but as I buy and hold for the long term it probably makes sense.

    60 percent of my holdings are in the Brookfield family of companies and one of the cornerstones of their investing philosophy is capital recycling so I guess you could say I let them take care of allocating my investment capital.

    There seems to be a lot of pessimism out there right now in the financial media with a lot of talk about inverted yield curves and pending recessions…The trouble is when everybody is talking about the same thing it rarely comes to pass…remember all the talk about rising interest rates last fall…

    Some of my holdings are cheap (BB, BBU.UN, WCP), while others seem expensive (IFC, BEP.UN)…At this point in time I’m just going to hold on to everything…like I usually do…One thing to keep in mind is that the market itself can do anything so I prefer to focus on what the companies in my portfolio are doing

  3. I have to pay about 70% of my annual expenses in August/September so I had to spend a big chunk of my cash reserve on university tuition and rent for the year. My landlords collect rent upfront for the whole year in cash with no receipt...

    I have been saving money since April/May when I bought more shares of ENGH and LNR. I have not sold anything. Currently, I have about 5% of my net worth in cash. About half of this is in 3 GICs which will be maturing in the first half of October.

    I do not have much time to research the companies now since I go to school full time year-round and also work about 60% FTE casual jobs. My short term plan is to keep saving to have enough money to max out the TFSA contribution in early January after the tax loss selling and possible intensification of retaliatory tariffs in December. I could see our Southern friends trying to coerce other countries (EU, Canada etc.) to pick sides and either be with them or against them (in response to both CN as well as IR etc), which could annihilated global supply chains despite of the increased trade liberalization on the whole. This might all play out early next year, although CN might try to delay until closer to elections more than a year from now to cause as much inconvenience as possible.

    I have been trying to get to 10% cash for a couple years now but I always end up buying something. I am fairly new to investing but many Canadian companies are cheapest I have ever seen. In fact, if I did not max out my TFSA last January and had spare cash, I would be adding to many of my positions since several of them are at multi-year lows. None of us are fans of energy or resource companies, but some are trading at less than 3 or 5 times free cash flow... I do not know if this is normal but it seems worthy to at least take a second look and learn about valuing declining assets. This is partly because even good companies seem to not be as good as they once were - look for e.g. at MTY and its recent acquisitions, continuously compressing margins, declining ROE/ROIC, etc. despite of increasing leverage. Investor relations of most companies I try to reach out to also do not respond or refuse to talk to me or answer my questions about their long term plans and capital allocation strategies which does not help. In December/January, I will build my spreadsheets and see how companies rank and then decide what to buy and maybe for the first time also what to sell ( CMG).

    As you know, I am currently only in Canadian companies and my performance has been quite bad after the healthcare crash, oil crash, panic run on alt-a mortgage lenders, auto crash, etc. My RRSP has been stuck at down over 60% for past three or four years (CXR was essentially written off). I am quite frustrated with myself so I might just give up and buy a US ETF or shares of some conglomerate like MKL if I will not be able to build a better Canadian portfolio.

    1. ATD.B still aim to double their size over the next 5Y. Parkland (PKI) is still attractive also. Boyd BYD.un, MTY, DOL are other growth stories... even BHC (ex-Valeant) seems attractive... MRU, CSU,GIB.a are good compagnies to be Purchase on the dip...

    2. Dear Value Man,
      Thank you for your response. I hold 5/9 of the stocks (MTY, DOL, BHC, CSU, and GIB) that you have mentioned. They represent 25% of my portfolio but 49% of capital gains (despite of being 67% underwater on BHC). I have been averaging down on some financials (HCG, EQB, ECN) and industrials (NFI, LNR) in winter and am now overweight (44%) on them at the moment. I will see what will be happening this winter and allocate money accordingly. The 4/9 that I don't have have been on my watchlist but I was always too cheap to pull the trigger on them. Do you do any adjustments on BYD when looking at it (it had several years of losses four or so years ago)? Are you not worried about declines in tobacco and oil consumption for ATD and PKI? I have to work on my rankings, ratios, and due diligence since it does not adequately reflect opportunities for companies to reinvest and grow, which might be more important than just high historical ROE and cash flow. I am a bit confused and very frustrated right now. I need more time to clear my mind and get a better bearing on the market and understanding of companies. Either the market is very irrational or I am very naive and am missing some very important points or most likely both. Either way, hoarding cash for the next little while shouldn't hurt. Hopefully I will be able to learn faster than I will be making new mistakes in the future.

  4. I am currently 25% in cash. I've been worried about the inverted yield curve & Trump's trade war triggering a recession so i took the opportunity to rebalance by selling some long-term holdings with the goal of simplifying my portfolio.

    Now I am getting a bit antsy about holding so much cash. I will probably look to dollar cost average back into the market over the next 4 months with scheduled buys.

  5. Sitting at 6% Cash, looking to move that to about 10% over the next month in case opportunities present themselves in October/November time frame.

  6. fully invested, bullish. initiated new positions in the us in PYPL, FB, and AVLR. holding Brookfields for another 200 years. Bought Onex, more Enbridge, Cenovus and Nutrien in Canada

  7. I continue to hold the same six positions I have had since fall 2017 and have not added any cash because I suck at saving money and spend every penny I earn :(
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