vendredi 5 juin 2020

Outsmart the market

It's gonna be hard not to offend some people here, but frankly, what happens with the market these days makes me despise a lot of investors.

It's been said countless of times: you can't predict the market. The only way to predict the market is to time travel. Which hasn't been done since 1985 (Back to the Future). For the last 35 years, I haven't seen anything related to time travel, so I think that this shit is over. 

Lately, I've read about some people selling most of their stocks. Like selling 75% or more of what they owned to raise a lot of cash to take advantage of the big crash that should come. Well, guess what? That big crash didn't come. At the opposite, the market goes higher and higher everyday. These people, selling 50% or 75% of their shares lost a lot of money with the recent comeback, trying to speculate on what could happen next.

That's what we could call "market sodomy".

I must admit that I still don't understand why the market surged so much during the last 2 months. But, even if I thought things should get worse, by the end of march, I was only 3% cash. I had a margin that I wanted to use if prices dropped too much, and that's all. In other words, I reduced my positions when the market was high and I bought back shares when the market dropped. I ain't a fucking genius. I just did what everybody told to do. In other words, I copy what intelligent people have always said to do for the last 100 years. I don't try to follow my own path like some fucking prophet. IT DOESN'T WORK! I'D LIKE TO BE SPECIAL, BUT SADLY, I'M NOT SPECIAL. MY SHIT IS SPECIAL THOUGH, BECAUSE I'VE GOT CROHN'S DISEASE.

During march, I kept the stocks I owned, which I thought were great. But I sold some stocks and bought some others. An adjustment to face the crisis. For instance, I sold some stocks linked to retail and I bought some others which, in my view, should do well even if the pandemic would last many months. You may do some mistakes, doing this, but, at least, you're still on the market.

Nobody is smarter than the market. Those who try to impress us with their magical skills are usually fuckers. That's why I despise many investors: they are either liars, cocky or pedophiles. Sometimes all of these.

P.S. Today, my portfolio reached another milestone. Another round number. Never thought I'd reach this point so soon.

7 commentaires:

  1. Well ill say there is aome genius. More that Warren Buffett who holds cash, refusing to buy as he waits for a better moment. I guess 50% off wasnt good enuf for him.

    Well done.

    1. I don't understand why he didn't at least invest a few billion dollars. It would have been almost nothing for him.

  2. Good job. I did okay but I still have too much cash sitting around. I was too uncomfortable to buy retail and restaurant stocks. Big tech stocks didn't drop as much as I hoped they would. This was my first bear market experience.

  3. no I have 100,000 CAD of cash sitting for a real estate opportunity which in the next 12 months could be an option + 100 000 CAD in stocks. I made too many mistakes to beat the SP500 when I started (biotech, energy sector, mines, lots of debt, no cash flow, JNUG qnd high leverqge contango) all the worst mistakes an investor can make.