jeudi 16 juillet 2020

A prediction

I'm not comfortable at all with that kind of prediction, but I'm betting on a drop of the market of at least 10% before the end of the year.

Positive view: A vaccine (highly improbable on the short term, and even if there's a vaccine, it won't be accessible for everyone in a short period). 

Negative view: A pandemic that will continue at least until the end of the year, killing tourism and many small shops (highly probable until december).

Restaurants and bars are being reconfined in many places. I think that my prediction comes from these news.

9 commentaires:

  1. I expect swings and lots of volatility. China-U.S. tension; vaccine discovery (or bad news about prospects of vaccine; U.S. election ( shitshow and chaos following whoever wins, accusations of China/Russia meddling, more tensions), state of the economy, etc.

    In short, investors will need to be very nimble while recognizing the structural changes to the economy: all-cash or all-in will be losing strategies I think.

  2. It is a fair bet. Since the last three years, we have seen a 20% drop late 2018 and a 35% drop in 2020. And a 10% drop early 2018 I think.

    High quality stocks are hardly found at a slight discounted price these days. Though, Copart is trading at a fairly reasonable price these days

  3. Copart trading at a reasonable price these days???

    Are you serious?

    Very few stocks are traded at a reasonable price and Copart is surely not one of them at more than 30 times next year's earnings.

  4. It has a ROE > 30% and EPS has almost doubled since three years. The PE is below the 5 years average. I am ready to pay such a premium for an outstanding company like.

    It can take a while before such a stock is traded close to PE = 20, unless the fundamentals are deteriorating or a major crash happens like in March

  5. One thing is that volatility will be around! Timing the market is a fool's game, just stay invested! " I Pity the fool" My TFSA is up 23% YTD to July 17 thanks to ENGH-T, VMD-T, and PIF-T.

  6. Love ENGH. I just can't sell it, it's literally saving my TFSA account (along with CSU...).

    I like what PIF is doing but it's too risky for me at the moment. Too much concentration in Nicaragua. Could be interesting when they own a portfolio in Latin America, but they are not there yet. I just don't see myself putting my hard earned $$$ in the hands of a single jurisdiction. When Fortis went to Belize... it was not pretty.

  7. Agreed on a pull-back. I think a ~ 4-5 month down phase will start around August 19, then buy back 1st week of January 2021. Will raise 1/4 cash.

  8. A 10% drop after it's gone up another 20%?

  9. Anyone why the Mr. Donville doesn't show his face on Bloomberg BNN? Is is because he has pie on it?