mercredi 1 septembre 2021

Portfolio review: august 31th, 2021

In 2010 and 2015, I filled an Excel document with financial objectives for the next 5 years. 

I learned that at University: you have to set some objectives in life, otherwise, you never really know where you're going and you can't validate if you're doing good or not. Also, objectives motivate you to take action.  

For instance, in 2015, I planned that, five years later (2020), my portfolio would reach an ambitious number. Today, less than one year after that objective of 2020, my portfolio worths almost twice my objective for 2020. I'm sure that this Excel file motivated me to put efforts in my portfolio. I didn't watch it often, but I had it in the back of my mind.  

My 20 years-old nephew is the exact opposite of that. He finished high school but became a drop-out afterwards. He had the spontaneous idea that getting some big tatoos on the leg and on his side would be a good idea. He even got his ears pierced and got a perm. Recently, he bought a 27 000$ car and planning to find a job to help him to pay for that car (instead of getting a job and having a car to help him to get to his job)... To me, it's impossible that he will do well later on a financial level. He's cruising in total fog. And he'll probably never read the Bernard Mooney book about investment that I gave him last year. 

If you want to get rich, you have to make some efforts, you also have to save money and don't start life with useless debts. Buying a 27 000$ car at 19 years old is one of the worst financial decision of your life. But I guess that some people have to make stupid decisions to learn. 


Sell in may and go away. Fuck that expression. I knew it wasn't said by Socrat or Winston Churchill, but this year, the famous expression bites the dust like rarely before. 

Last time I wrote a portfolio review was on may 31st, and, at the time, my portfolio was up 6%. I was beaten by the S&P500.   

Three months later, my portfolio is up 27% since the beginning of 2021. I'd never thought it could be possible, but my portfolio has been up more than 20% in three months, without any major transaction. Exchange rate is a little more on my side than 3 months ago, but not that much (it helps because I'm more than 80% US). That's crazy. 

And what's even crazier is that my performance was worse than the S&P500 and is now 5% above the performance of the S&P500. Talk about a turn-around!

Here comes the usual numbers about my portfolio:

Number of stocks: 20

Average ROE: 31

Average FWD PE: 37

Average Beta: 1

As you can see, my portfolio is very expensive (FWD PE: 37). But I like every stock I own. Most of them grow rapidly and are very predictable. So, I don't see why I should sell them for a less performing stock. 

But, a FWD PE of 37 is not normal. Not normal at all. I have to think a bit more about that... No changes expected on the short run, but when the historical average is way behind, you have to think about it. 


2 commentaires:

  1. So far this year I'm up 20.37 percent...another good year but i feel a little apprehensive as I just sold Altus Group Limited (AIF on the TSX) after it shot up 14 percent after they reported their last quarterly earnings report.

    I sold two great growth stocks in the past...Toromont Industries Ltd (TIH on the TSX) and Descartes Systems Group Inc 9DSG on the TSX). I sold both of them when they were fifty-sometyhing. Now TIH is over $100.00 and DSG is in the nineties somewhere...I was unable to get back into them.

    I'm hoping the same thing doesn't happen with AIF but who knows, investing is an artform more than a science and it can be tough psychologically. In the couple of years I've been rotating more into the energy sector again thinking a long term bottom was in. I now hold Whitecap (WCP, TOU and TPZ all on the TSX).

    I cannot argue with the Terminator's growth stock investing approach (over the long term it works) but at the same time I can't shake my value mindset which I try to fuse with the growth approach...
    Investing is never easy...good luck to everyone...

  2. Congrats to you both on being successful investors!

    In the past 8 years I have moved away from the TSX and invested more in US stocks(70%), this has made a huge difference to my returns. I'm up 29.4% for the year to date mostly by doing nothing and letting my stocks perform since last November. LSPD, DCBO, TFII, NVEI have done really well for me in terms of CDN Stocks. LSPD looks especially poised for growth as the economy opens further. For US companies, I've done well with SE, V, BR, MSFT, AWK, MELI and FB. These 11 companies make up 70% of my folio. I decided to buy MSFT instead of Google last year - in hindsight Google was the better investment. I recently bought a small position in CNR this summer and will try to build a full position in this over time.

    Best of luck out there...