For a couple of years, I've been interested about offers of various credit cards companies. Because you can make a couple of hundred dollars against very little effort.
Some credit cards offer you something like 200 or 300$ of rewards at subscription. However, take note that, sometimes, you have to have a specific annual income (ex: 60 000$). But almost anybody can find an interesting credit card, given their profile.
Some of the best offers come from American Express, which is sad because that fucking card isn't accepted in a lot of places. But Walmart, Petro-Canada, Shell and Metro accept it. With these, you can buy sufficient stuff to help you to reach the minimum billing required to get your reward (sometimes you have to buy for a minimum of 750 or 1500$ over your first 3 months owning the card).
Why wouldn't you take advantage of these companies that claim a 20% annual fees on poor and stupid people who don't reimburse their bill? Suck my cock, you motherfuckers. So, take one of these cards for a period under one year, claim your reward, cancel your card (save the annual fees that usually don't apply the first year), and go for another card. If you're astute, you'll get 500-600$ a year, without any fees. And that's the "normal person" way. If you're really into it and you want to bleed these credit cards companies, you'll do much better.
If you read a blog about investment, probably that you have a certain income and your free time is precious and isn't devoted to make 300$ more each year. That's how I am. Never closed to make a few extra bucks as long as it doesn't require too much time and effort.
If you're interested, here's a few resources to help you chose the best credit card given your situation.
There's many websites about credit cards, but here's a good one:
https://www.ratehub.ca/credit-cards/rewards
Then, lately, someone wrote to me to tell me about his website about credit cards. The website is interesting, and the person running it tells about how to travel for free (or almost), using rewards to get free nights at specific hotels.
http://donnycoupon.com
Don't say thank you. I live to give.
lundi 31 juillet 2017
lundi 24 juillet 2017
Does Sears deserve to die?
Last weekend, I went to the nearest Sears. Because my girlfriend said to me that I could buy some clothes during the bankrupcy sales (well, not really bankrupcy, but close...). And she said to me that my mother asked her to buy some bras for her there.
Because my 65 years old mother always buys her bras at Sears. Same size, same brand, same beige.
When you take a look at bras in a Sears, you realize exactly what this business is aiming at: 65 years old women.
The store was clean. The merchandise was OK but not exceptionnal. I didn't search a lot for my clothes. Nothing seemed interesting.
If you're a 17 years old hypersexualized girl and you want to show the world what the nature has given you, you won't shop at Sears.
If you're a 25 years old douchebag and you want to show your tatoos and the effects of steroids to the world, you won't buy a striped shirt at Sears.
If you're a 35 years old professional with some personnality, you won't buy your clothes at Sears either, because you have some personnality.
You will only buy your clothes there if you're a very average person or a retired person that has no desire of seducing people around you. When you're an average person, you go to an average store to buy average clothes... which are nonetheless pricey.
Last weekend, I was amazed at the fact that, for a fire sale, everything was pricey, or at best, at a standard price.
I don't think that Sears deserves to die, because a lot of stores aren't better than Sears. The dollar stores, TJX, Ross Stores and Burlington in Florida are way dirtier than the Sears of Quebec City. However, the consumer gets value at these dirty stores. And that's what everybody is searching for at this information age: value. Because we all have access to the Internet and we all can see that Sears is not a bargain place.
I've never understood why some people (like Eddie Lampert) invested so much money in Sears Holdings. Just take a look at a chart. It was one of the worst moves an investor could do. That's stock is like a fucking vertical Titanic. It's been that way for a couple of years. It will tear apart sooner or later if the scenario is respected.
As you can see below, the managers get out safely and comfortably, while the crew is drowning.
And some random irish immigrant too.
In conclusion, do not buy at Sears. Do not invest in Sears. Just look elsewhere and don't get too close because the vacuum will suck you in.
Because my 65 years old mother always buys her bras at Sears. Same size, same brand, same beige.
When you take a look at bras in a Sears, you realize exactly what this business is aiming at: 65 years old women.
The store was clean. The merchandise was OK but not exceptionnal. I didn't search a lot for my clothes. Nothing seemed interesting.
If you're a 17 years old hypersexualized girl and you want to show the world what the nature has given you, you won't shop at Sears.
If you're a 25 years old douchebag and you want to show your tatoos and the effects of steroids to the world, you won't buy a striped shirt at Sears.
If you're a 35 years old professional with some personnality, you won't buy your clothes at Sears either, because you have some personnality.
You will only buy your clothes there if you're a very average person or a retired person that has no desire of seducing people around you. When you're an average person, you go to an average store to buy average clothes... which are nonetheless pricey.
Last weekend, I was amazed at the fact that, for a fire sale, everything was pricey, or at best, at a standard price.
I don't think that Sears deserves to die, because a lot of stores aren't better than Sears. The dollar stores, TJX, Ross Stores and Burlington in Florida are way dirtier than the Sears of Quebec City. However, the consumer gets value at these dirty stores. And that's what everybody is searching for at this information age: value. Because we all have access to the Internet and we all can see that Sears is not a bargain place.
I've never understood why some people (like Eddie Lampert) invested so much money in Sears Holdings. Just take a look at a chart. It was one of the worst moves an investor could do. That's stock is like a fucking vertical Titanic. It's been that way for a couple of years. It will tear apart sooner or later if the scenario is respected.
As you can see below, the managers get out safely and comfortably, while the crew is drowning.
And some random irish immigrant too.
In conclusion, do not buy at Sears. Do not invest in Sears. Just look elsewhere and don't get too close because the vacuum will suck you in.
vendredi 21 juillet 2017
Linamar, so far so good
I've never understood why so many people weren't interested in Linamar.
The stock has been very cheap for a while.
EPS growth has been steady and very good for a while.
The ROE has been great (around 20) for a while.
The company has a very moderate debt.
It's not a regulated sector (auto parts).
Everything is there.
But, some people say that the income of the CEO is too high (for those who can read french).
I've never really cared about the income of any CEO. They're almost all overpaid. What about an over-overpaid CEO? I don't care about it if the performance of the stock and the numbers behind the stock are good. I mean, OK, it's immoral to earn 14 million dollars a year while ethiopians are drinking water full of worms and shit. But we live in an immoral world where we kill billions of male baby chicken every year because they're worthless (it's true, just check on the Internet). We let stupid people reproduce, thus spreading stupidity and misery around us. There's 10 billion things more immoral as a fucking CEO who earns 14 millions dollars a year and we all tolerate them because of our system of values which I don't share. So, I don't give a fuck about total compensation.
Anyway, take a look at that list. The richest CEO's in Canada are there. You'll see that the king of motherfuckers, Mike Pearson (Valeant), is well ahead everybody. Then, you have Hunter Harrisson (CP.TO), Mark Barrenechea (OTEX.TO), Brian Hannasch (ATD-B.TO), and, at number 8, you get Linda Hasenfratz (LNR.TO) with a total compensation of about 14 million dollars a year. It's a lot, but, if the total compensation was a reason not to invest in a stock, I wouldn't own Alimentation Couche-Tard and I wouldn't be thinking of owning Open Text.
Both business are great. They're surely among the top 10 in Canada.
And I won't buy shares of Blackberry just because the CEO is number 91 on the list.
LNR.TO is up about 22% this year. It's a good perfomance. And you didn't have to be a fucking genius to select that stock 6-7 months ago. But you were afraid of the peak of auto sales. Because you're always afraid of something. But you were not afraid of following Ackman with his giga-stupid move of investing in Shitpotle Mexican Grill. And you weren't afraid of buying CRH Medical at something like 50 times actual earnings. Because they're not "cyclical stocks".
I don't think that LNR is the best stock in the world. But it was a safe bet (it's probably still a safe bet) and a logical choice in my opinion. That's a company that makes money, year after year and that's not overvalued at all. Much better than all those stocks that need a serious turn-around or that surf on some crazy fucking hype.
The stock has been very cheap for a while.
EPS growth has been steady and very good for a while.
The ROE has been great (around 20) for a while.
The company has a very moderate debt.
It's not a regulated sector (auto parts).
Everything is there.
But, some people say that the income of the CEO is too high (for those who can read french).
I've never really cared about the income of any CEO. They're almost all overpaid. What about an over-overpaid CEO? I don't care about it if the performance of the stock and the numbers behind the stock are good. I mean, OK, it's immoral to earn 14 million dollars a year while ethiopians are drinking water full of worms and shit. But we live in an immoral world where we kill billions of male baby chicken every year because they're worthless (it's true, just check on the Internet). We let stupid people reproduce, thus spreading stupidity and misery around us. There's 10 billion things more immoral as a fucking CEO who earns 14 millions dollars a year and we all tolerate them because of our system of values which I don't share. So, I don't give a fuck about total compensation.
Anyway, take a look at that list. The richest CEO's in Canada are there. You'll see that the king of motherfuckers, Mike Pearson (Valeant), is well ahead everybody. Then, you have Hunter Harrisson (CP.TO), Mark Barrenechea (OTEX.TO), Brian Hannasch (ATD-B.TO), and, at number 8, you get Linda Hasenfratz (LNR.TO) with a total compensation of about 14 million dollars a year. It's a lot, but, if the total compensation was a reason not to invest in a stock, I wouldn't own Alimentation Couche-Tard and I wouldn't be thinking of owning Open Text.
Both business are great. They're surely among the top 10 in Canada.
And I won't buy shares of Blackberry just because the CEO is number 91 on the list.
LNR.TO is up about 22% this year. It's a good perfomance. And you didn't have to be a fucking genius to select that stock 6-7 months ago. But you were afraid of the peak of auto sales. Because you're always afraid of something. But you were not afraid of following Ackman with his giga-stupid move of investing in Shitpotle Mexican Grill. And you weren't afraid of buying CRH Medical at something like 50 times actual earnings. Because they're not "cyclical stocks".
I don't think that LNR is the best stock in the world. But it was a safe bet (it's probably still a safe bet) and a logical choice in my opinion. That's a company that makes money, year after year and that's not overvalued at all. Much better than all those stocks that need a serious turn-around or that surf on some crazy fucking hype.
samedi 15 juillet 2017
Portfolio review - july 15th
There's been some movement in my portfolio lately.
I initiated a position in O'Reilly (ORLY) and Middleby (MIDD). I went back to Hardwoods distribution (HWD.TO) which I should never have sold. And I bought some more of MTY, CGI, Disney, Ross Stores and Dollar Tree.
My portfolio is up about 2,5% so far this year. I'm disappointed with my performance, but frankly, I like every stock I own. They're all well managed and I don't see a lot of risk in any of them. Plus, many of them have great growth prospects.
Penetrator's portfolio
Canada:
Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO): 8,4%
CGI Group (GIB-A.TO): 7,2%
Constellation Software (CSU.TO): 6,7%
Tucows (TC.TO): 5,7%
Linamar (LNR.TO): 5,7%
MTY Food Group (MTY.TO): 5,6%
Knight Therapeutics (GUD.TO): 3,4%
Stella Jones (SJ.TO): 3%
Hardwoods Distribution (HWD.TO): 2,5%
USA:
Ross Stores (ROST): 5,3%
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): 4,9%
Novo Nordisk (NVO): 4,6%
LKQ (LKQ): 4,3%
Biogen (BIIB): 4,2%
United Therapeutics (UTHR): 3,9%
Disney (DIS): 3,6%
Dollar Tree (DLTR): 3,5%
Mohawk (MHK): 3,2%
O'Reilly (ORLY): 3,2%
Lithia Motors (LAD): 3,2%
Middleby (MIDD): 1,9%
Bioverativ (BIIV): 0,4%
Cash: 5,7%
Portfolio's average ROE: 29
Portfolio's average forward PE: 15,5
Portfolio's average Beta: 0,85
To conclude, I invite everybody to join this group about growth investing created by my friend Robin Speziale. It's on Facebook.
If you're single, there's some cute girls there.
If you're not, they're still there.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/capitalcompoundersclub/
I initiated a position in O'Reilly (ORLY) and Middleby (MIDD). I went back to Hardwoods distribution (HWD.TO) which I should never have sold. And I bought some more of MTY, CGI, Disney, Ross Stores and Dollar Tree.
My portfolio is up about 2,5% so far this year. I'm disappointed with my performance, but frankly, I like every stock I own. They're all well managed and I don't see a lot of risk in any of them. Plus, many of them have great growth prospects.
Penetrator's portfolio
Canada:
Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD-B.TO): 8,4%
CGI Group (GIB-A.TO): 7,2%
Constellation Software (CSU.TO): 6,7%
Tucows (TC.TO): 5,7%
Linamar (LNR.TO): 5,7%
MTY Food Group (MTY.TO): 5,6%
Knight Therapeutics (GUD.TO): 3,4%
Stella Jones (SJ.TO): 3%
Hardwoods Distribution (HWD.TO): 2,5%
USA:
Ross Stores (ROST): 5,3%
Bank of the Ozarks (OZRK): 4,9%
Novo Nordisk (NVO): 4,6%
LKQ (LKQ): 4,3%
Biogen (BIIB): 4,2%
United Therapeutics (UTHR): 3,9%
Disney (DIS): 3,6%
Dollar Tree (DLTR): 3,5%
Mohawk (MHK): 3,2%
O'Reilly (ORLY): 3,2%
Lithia Motors (LAD): 3,2%
Middleby (MIDD): 1,9%
Bioverativ (BIIV): 0,4%
Cash: 5,7%
Portfolio's average ROE: 29
Portfolio's average forward PE: 15,5
Portfolio's average Beta: 0,85
To conclude, I invite everybody to join this group about growth investing created by my friend Robin Speziale. It's on Facebook.
If you're single, there's some cute girls there.
If you're not, they're still there.
https://www.facebook.com/groups/capitalcompoundersclub/
mercredi 12 juillet 2017
A little commercial for Del Vicario
Well, Jason Del Vicario was on BNN lately. And here's some of his picks:
Buy:
CCL Industries
Costco
Inter Pipeline (not sure if it's really a buy but he likes the company)
MTY Food Group
New Flyer Industries
Novo Nordisk
Photon Control
Biosyent
Shopify
Toronto Dominion
Top picks:
Dollarama
Ross Stores
iShares Barclays 20 years treasury bond
I'm not sure I understand all his picks. But how could anybody be bothered by my opinion? I can't even beat all those assholes that came to my blog and pick some crazy mongolian stocks as top picks for 2017. Almost everybody has done better than me.
I really need to get drunk and forget how bad I am.
I can't wait to shake his hand and let him touch me. Maybe that I'll get a bit of his superpowers and I'll become a better investor.
lundi 10 juillet 2017
Back to the magic formula
I've written about Joel Greenblatt's magic formula a few times since the inception of this blog.
The concept is simple and interesting:
1- Using a screener (you can use the one on www.magicformulainvesting.com), select 30 or 50 stocks with a specific market cap (for the example below, I've used a minimum market cap of 343 millions $);
2- You'll get a list of the highest ROE/lowest PE stocks on the market;
3- If you don't like some stocks, don't pick them. But keep at least 20 stocks and put the same percentage of your portfolio on each stock (20 stocks = 5% each);
4- Hold your stocks for one year, then sell them.
Using that method, you should beat the market 96% of the time with an average 17 years return of 30,8%, which is amazing. There's some website saying that the results will be well below 30%, but will still crush the market.
So far, 2017 has been a little disapointing for me. My portfolio's performance has been very slightly positive. In these times of deception, I'm tempted to look for a new messiah even if I hold pretty good stocks in my portfolio. I strongly believe that you should be faithful to great stocks instead of trying to find new obscure stocks. But, maybe there's something better than being faithful?
I may change my mind one day. After all, it's been at least 3 years since I've been thinking about using that magic formula. And for the last 3 years I've achieved so-so results (thanks to Valeant and Concordia).
*******************************************
I went back to the site to try the magic formula once again... And here's what it looks like.
Is there anybody using that formula in a robotic way, year after year?
*******************************************
The concept is simple and interesting:
1- Using a screener (you can use the one on www.magicformulainvesting.com), select 30 or 50 stocks with a specific market cap (for the example below, I've used a minimum market cap of 343 millions $);
2- You'll get a list of the highest ROE/lowest PE stocks on the market;
3- If you don't like some stocks, don't pick them. But keep at least 20 stocks and put the same percentage of your portfolio on each stock (20 stocks = 5% each);
4- Hold your stocks for one year, then sell them.
Using that method, you should beat the market 96% of the time with an average 17 years return of 30,8%, which is amazing. There's some website saying that the results will be well below 30%, but will still crush the market.
So far, 2017 has been a little disapointing for me. My portfolio's performance has been very slightly positive. In these times of deception, I'm tempted to look for a new messiah even if I hold pretty good stocks in my portfolio. I strongly believe that you should be faithful to great stocks instead of trying to find new obscure stocks. But, maybe there's something better than being faithful?
I may change my mind one day. After all, it's been at least 3 years since I've been thinking about using that magic formula. And for the last 3 years I've achieved so-so results (thanks to Valeant and Concordia).
*******************************************
I went back to the site to try the magic formula once again... And here's what it looks like.
Is there anybody using that formula in a robotic way, year after year?
*******************************************
mercredi 5 juillet 2017
Once upon a shit
It's june 21th 2017 and I'm saying to myself:
"Hey, I have a few thousand dollars left and I'm watching a few stocks that aren't that expensive at the moment. O'Reilly isn't that expensive (about 20 times current earnings but about 17 times next year's earnings) on an historical basis. Plus, a lot of analysts have said lately that we shouldn't time the market. Even if the market is pricey, there's always some occasions and we should always be invested."
I've never believed that much in that last sentence but when you hear something many times, it becomes the truth. Just like in the 40's with those great old nazis speeches.
So, I bought some shares of O'Reilly at a price of about 219 US$.
And then, two weeks later (today), the stock lost about 20% of it's price on a single day. What the fuck?
Why the fuck have I bought my shares this close to such a drop? I hate myself. I deserve a punishment. I deserve death.
Well, I don't want to pretend to be a fucking prophet, but, I thought that there were some chances that that kind of shit would happen.
Because something similar happened last year with Novo Nordisk. It's a very different stock (healthcare) but it shares a lot of similarities with ORLY: a very high ROE, a relatively high historical PE, a low beta, very steady earnings, great management, large cap, etc.
I said to myself that this kind of stock is hard to buy at a discount. But as with Novo Nordisk, I knew that the growth had been slowing for the last quarters. And the price of the shares was lower and lower each week while the market was pricey.
That's a great indicator: when the S&P/TSX is high and a stock is relatively low, you should probably (not always, buf often) wait before buying. If the price is lower and lower, month after month, it's because the market feels something. And a hit is probably incoming.
I'll keep my ORLY shares because it's a great company. But I think that 2017 won't be a good year for the stock. Usually, such a drop isn't mitigated before a while.
Do you sometimes hate yourself like I'm hating myself right now?
"Hey, I have a few thousand dollars left and I'm watching a few stocks that aren't that expensive at the moment. O'Reilly isn't that expensive (about 20 times current earnings but about 17 times next year's earnings) on an historical basis. Plus, a lot of analysts have said lately that we shouldn't time the market. Even if the market is pricey, there's always some occasions and we should always be invested."
I've never believed that much in that last sentence but when you hear something many times, it becomes the truth. Just like in the 40's with those great old nazis speeches.
So, I bought some shares of O'Reilly at a price of about 219 US$.
And then, two weeks later (today), the stock lost about 20% of it's price on a single day. What the fuck?
Why the fuck have I bought my shares this close to such a drop? I hate myself. I deserve a punishment. I deserve death.
Well, I don't want to pretend to be a fucking prophet, but, I thought that there were some chances that that kind of shit would happen.
Because something similar happened last year with Novo Nordisk. It's a very different stock (healthcare) but it shares a lot of similarities with ORLY: a very high ROE, a relatively high historical PE, a low beta, very steady earnings, great management, large cap, etc.
I said to myself that this kind of stock is hard to buy at a discount. But as with Novo Nordisk, I knew that the growth had been slowing for the last quarters. And the price of the shares was lower and lower each week while the market was pricey.
That's a great indicator: when the S&P/TSX is high and a stock is relatively low, you should probably (not always, buf often) wait before buying. If the price is lower and lower, month after month, it's because the market feels something. And a hit is probably incoming.
I'll keep my ORLY shares because it's a great company. But I think that 2017 won't be a good year for the stock. Usually, such a drop isn't mitigated before a while.
Do you sometimes hate yourself like I'm hating myself right now?
samedi 1 juillet 2017
My picks for 2017, 6 months later
On january 2nd, I wrote a post titled "My picks for 2017".
A lot of people submitted their picks too. With 48 comments, I can't look back at every suggestion made. However, I invite everybody who wrote something to share their performance in the comment section.
Here's my picks and the performance of each stock:
1- Constellation Software (softwares); UP 12%
2- CGI Group (consulting services); UP 1%
3- Alimentation Couche-Tard (convenience stores); UP 2%
4- Linamar (auto parts); UP 9%
5- Knight Therapeutics (healthcare, but mostly a full-cash company for now); DOWN 3%
6- Tucows (Internet services); UP 47%
7- United Therapeutics (healthcare); DOWN 10%
8- Mohawk Industries (carpets and ceramics); UP 20%
9- Disney (movies, thematic parks, ESPN and more); 0%
10-LKQ (auto parts and cours à scrap); UP 6%
Average return: 8,4%
S&P/TSX: -1,4%
The S&P/TSX if the best benchmark for me because my portfolio is almost 50% US and 50% CAN. I've beaten the S&P/TSX by almost 10% over the last 6 months, which is a good performance.
There's a guy who achieved a pretty good performance so far. At the time he wrote his comment, I thought he had something. Now, 6 months later, I realize he was right. And that's where I'm heading more and more as time passes: great companies that compound even if they're a little expensive.
Here's his comment:
Quality investor:
"Compounders almost regardless of valuation"
1. BRK.B
2. GOOG
3. V
4. MA
5. NVO
6. ROST
7. TJX
8. ANSS
9. FDS
10. FB
What about you?
A lot of people submitted their picks too. With 48 comments, I can't look back at every suggestion made. However, I invite everybody who wrote something to share their performance in the comment section.
Here's my picks and the performance of each stock:
1- Constellation Software (softwares); UP 12%
2- CGI Group (consulting services); UP 1%
3- Alimentation Couche-Tard (convenience stores); UP 2%
4- Linamar (auto parts); UP 9%
5- Knight Therapeutics (healthcare, but mostly a full-cash company for now); DOWN 3%
6- Tucows (Internet services); UP 47%
7- United Therapeutics (healthcare); DOWN 10%
8- Mohawk Industries (carpets and ceramics); UP 20%
9- Disney (movies, thematic parks, ESPN and more); 0%
10-LKQ (auto parts and cours à scrap); UP 6%
Average return: 8,4%
S&P/TSX: -1,4%
The S&P/TSX if the best benchmark for me because my portfolio is almost 50% US and 50% CAN. I've beaten the S&P/TSX by almost 10% over the last 6 months, which is a good performance.
There's a guy who achieved a pretty good performance so far. At the time he wrote his comment, I thought he had something. Now, 6 months later, I realize he was right. And that's where I'm heading more and more as time passes: great companies that compound even if they're a little expensive.
Here's his comment:
Quality investor:
"Compounders almost regardless of valuation"
1. BRK.B
2. GOOG
3. V
4. MA
5. NVO
6. ROST
7. TJX
8. ANSS
9. FDS
10. FB
What about you?
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