Penetrator feels too rich

My portfolio is way ahead of where it should be now. During the last days, it reached a level that I thought it would probably reach in one year or maybe two (without a crisis or a recession).

It makes me think a lot:

1- I could almost stop working now. Not entirely, but I could reduce speed a lot. Get a small job at Costco, work 20 hours a week and let my portfolio work for me. I'm not unhappy enough with my condition to try this, but it could be an option, sooner or later. That's what I've worked for, over the last 11 years, with a lot of discipline. It came sooner than I thought. Maybe some gigantic shit will happen before the end of summer and what I've written here won't be valid anymore. But anyway, I feel that I am a little too young to have the "money" part of my brain so little worried;
2- I never had money problems of my whole life, even if I don't come from a rich family. It looks like it won't happen for the rest of my life;
3- How do I deserve to be so lucky? Karma will get me another way. Will some of the guys I've fired will put a bullet in my head one fine day?
4- How come are we getting more and more alone as years go by? Are money and comfort some consolations?
5- What will I do with all my money? Let it grow, like a fucking blob which gets bigger and bigger?
6- Will I be generous with everybody, even people that I don't know?
7- I live so fucking under my needs, it's crazy. But I can't change that. I don't really care to earn a lot of money but I care a lot about not spending too much. Is that a control issue?
8- What comes with a relative wealth? Trust in yourself? Freedom? Chosing the full big mac meal when you go to McDonald's? Perhaps. But you're not wiser or kinder or more intelligent. You only have the possibility to be fully the kind of person that you are. As bad or great as you are.
9-  I haven't made any major investment mistake for some time now.
10- What's next? Should I try LSD? Do I need a vision of some kind to see something?

Chosing between the two typical investor types (A-Boring wanker who watches pedophelia on the dark web and B- Coke-head guy who has a lot of accounts on Ashley Madison), I'd chose the third-one which was not mentioned: C- The guy who takes LSD and go to the Himalaya.

Has anybody ever tried LSD and did it change something?

A review of pharma/healthcare

A few years ago, I was very fond of the pharma industry. I thought it was the best sector in which an investor could put money. I was sure about that because health was to me the only sector which couldn't be affected by new technologies and Amazon, and all that revolution that's happening.

Time has passed, and once again, my opinion has changed. Even if they're much easier to analyze than bank stocks, I now believe that pharmas are on the same level than banks: unpredictable. There are some exceptions, but, most of them could hit an Iceberg tomorrow because of regulation, patent expiration, failure of some new drug, etc.

It's not like Dollarama, for instance. If Dollarama or TJX builds one more shop, they'll sell more stuff. But if Merck builds one more factory, people won't go there to buy more drugs. That's as simple as that.

Let's take a look at the market performance of 12 of the biggest pharmas/healthcare stocks over the last 5 years:

Johnson and Johnson: 33%
Roche: -7%
Pfizer: 46%
Novartis: 15%
Merck: 47%
GlaxoSmithKline: -23%
Sanofi: -16%
AbbVie: 31%
Bayer: -51%
Eli Lilly: 81%
Amgen: 55%
Bristol-Myers-Squibb: -4%

Average return for the 12 biggest pharma companies: 17,25% over the last 5 years
TSX/S&P500 return: 9,3% over the last 5 years


Even if they've beaten the market as a group, these 12 stocks only achieved a 17,25% performance over 5 years. That's less than 3% per year. Would you really be happy with such a performance?

If we take a look at some of other pharmas which are smaller, but big nonetheless, the results are much less interesting. I won't even talk about Valeant (-75%) and Concordia (-99%):

Celgene: 9%
Jazz Pharma: -9%
United Therapeutics: -14%
Biogen: -20%
Perrigo: -66%
Teva: -82%
Mallinkrodt: -89%

My opinion was negative. These numbers confirm my opinion.

Visiting O’Reilly

Being an O’Reilly (ORLY) shareholder for a few years, I never entered a shop before. So, while I was on my way back from a Taco Bell in Alaska (I’m a fine fourchette), I stopped at an O’Reilly and decided to enter.

First thing to say, I’m not a car guy at all. I have almost no interest in the subject and I’ve never made  any manipulation on a car except for checking oil level and using traction aids. So, I don’t have the right profile to be excited by that kind of place.

And it happened exactly like it should: I wasn’t excited about that american equivalent to a Canadian Tire. It smelled car stuff, it was full of parts and furniture for the car. The prices didn’t look like a bargain. But, again, I’m not the right guy to judge about that kind of place.

It’s a bit like Ulta Beauty. Both are great businesses/stocks (high ROE, very high predictability, good growth) but both are aimed at a specific target (girls and alpha males) and are not that cheap.

However, both offer almost all you need in a single place (stuff and service) and have a wide network. So, you don’t go there to save money. You go there because you’ll find what you need and you’ll get help if you need it. 

But, boring visit if you ask me. Five minutes in a Ulta Beauty and an O’Reilly were enough for the rest of my life.

Happy 4th of July by the way, you, fat-eating Americans.

5 years of Don't Fuck with Donville

I wrote my first post on that blog on june 22nd 2014. Exactly 5 years ago.

So, everybody, put your hands on the screen of your computer or your Phone and feel the power of 5 years of great writings.

You'd probably want to ask me: "How does it feel to be a star of the web?". Well, nothing has really changed in my life except for the fact that I can now have sex everywhere with almost anybody. That's how it's always been for superstars. So, everyday, I have a lot of sex with girls and boys and a lot of cocaine and orgies. Sometimes a bit of LSD to get inspiration for my posts. And too, some funny activities like dwarf throw. But essentially, I'm still the good old Penetrator you've met 5 years ago.

On the investing level, what has changed over the last 5 years?

Autonomy.

That's what I've got after all these years and that's my main advice to ALL OF YOU.

Seek that autonomy as soon as possible. Deny everybody. Deny me too. Never believe the opinion of others without verifying the facts. And even if the facts are there, deny the person who gave you the information. Never believe in somebody for too long. Find the best 5% of stocks available and stick with them.

Really, that's the best advice you could get from anybody. And almost no investors will tell you that because they want you to praise and worship them. But sadly, they're all full of shit and only want attention, because they want exposure.

With exposure, they'll meet a lot of investors and will get fucked by them because they're almost all gay.

Net assets for canadians

My last survey was a flop. Investors may be intelligent people, they can't understand a simple indication like "please, indicate the value of your portfolio". Instead, they fucking write long comments about something else. So, they're responsible for the failure of the survey and the impossibility for me to write something intelligent about the average value of the portfolios of readers of this blog.

So, let's seek information elsewhere.

Here's a link about the wealth of canadians on some french-canadian publication.

The first part of the article that caught my attention was the "savings superstars". In other words, that's the money that should be saved at different moments of life for an early retirement. In my humble opinion, these numbers are almost impossible to reach. They're in USD, which is even crazier.

25 years old: 79 000$
30 years old: 250 000$
35 years old: 429 000$
40 years old: 660 000$
45 years old: 914 000$
50 years old: 1 240 000$

OK, perhaps you've got there because you read this blog and you have no other goal in your life than owning as much money as you can. So, you only eat white bread with nothing on it and have no hobbies other than watching hardcore porn on Youporn. But you're an exception.

Another interesting part of the article: net assets per family.

They say that average net assets per canadian family would be 378 000$ (for families between 45 and 54 years old).

What the fuck? Does every fucking canadian own a house or what? I don't understand that number. A lot of people own nothing. There's even some rich people who own almost nothing because they're full of debts. Many people own a house, but their mortgage is at a crazy level. Around us, there's only people with debt.

My main justification is that about 33% of quebecers don't pay any taxes because they're too poor. How could net assets be 378 000$ per family at an age between 45 and 54?

Because everybody is rich in Toronto and Vancouver?

No shit. These fucking cities are full of crackhouses. Fuck you, Vancouver and Toronto and everybody living in those shitholes full of mofos. Fuck you too Montreal, by the way.

Size of your portfolio

Here’s a little survey that will be interesting for me if a lot of people participate and are honest. Don’t hesitate to use another name if you want to be anonymous. I just want honest answers, i don’t need to identify anybody.

So, what’s the size of your portfolio? I’m talking here about all your money invested in stocks or bonds.

A- 0 to 50 000$
B- 50 000 to 100 000$
C- 100 000 to 200 000$
D- 200 000 to 500 000$
E- 500 000 to 1 million $
F- more than 1 million $

To keep or to sell

I'm pretty tempted to sell a part of what I own and wait for a better moment to come back.

I'm pretty tempted, even if all the so-called intelligent investors would say that it's not a good idea. 

They'd probably serve me the usual sentences. I've read them all over the last 10 years:

1- You should always stay invested. Ideally, 100% invested;

2- You shouldn't try to time the market;

3- Never sell a good asset;

4- Sell only when a good asset looks way overvalued;

5- etc…

My favorite sentence is the fifth one. Yeah, "etc" was a lot of food for thoughts for me. So open to interpretation. 

Today, I noticed how much I've beaten the index so far in 2019. My 22% performance so far is way better than the very respectable 13% of the S&P/TSX. 

Any annual performance over 20% represents a great year. What could I wait for, for the rest of 2019? An additionnal 10%? I'm too realistic to aim for that. Better case scenario, in my opinion, I'd get another 5%. And the realistic scenario is that the market could easily drop by 10% in the coming months, because it always happens, every year.

It's always a question of  historical means. With a performance of 13%, the market has done better than it's historical annual mean which is a little less than 10% per year for the last 60 years. But not much more. However, there's still 6 months and a half to go in 2019. 

And every question about investment is always a matter of proportion. To like a specific stock is sometimes OK as long as it's not a big position. And to have only 1% of your portfolio with a super stock is not good either. Same for cash. 

I'll never have a portfolio of 50% cash. The PE of the market would have to be very very high for me to have that much cash on hand. Currently, I'm 10% cash. I think I could get to 15-20% and the moment. With a portfolio made of 80% stocks, you can still benefit from what happens on the market. 

That's it. The post is written and I still don't know what i'm gonna do. I'll surely buy nothing. But I don't know if I'll sell something. There's always some spontaneity even if I write big posts about reflexion. Which doesn't always guide my actions.